Belief Disagreement and Portfolio Choice -- by Maarten Meeuwis, Jonathan A....
Using a proprietary dataset of the portfolio holdings of millions of anonymized households with trillions in wealth, we test the central tenet of rational-expectations theories of asset pricing and...
View ArticleUnbundling Polarization -- by Nathan Canen, Chad Kendall, Francesco Trebbi
This paper investigates the determinants of political polarization, a phenomenon of increasing relevance in Western democracies. How much of polarization is driven by divergence in the ideologies of...
View ArticleTurnover Liquidity and the Transmission of Monetary Policy -- by Ricardo...
We provide empirical evidence of a novel liquidity-based transmission mechanism through which monetary policy influences asset markets, develop a model of this mechanism, and assess the ability of the...
View ArticleThe Effects of Medicaid Expansion on Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from...
This paper provides new empirical evidence on the employment and earning effects of the recent Medicaid expansion. Unlike most existing studies that use a conventional state and year fixed effects...
View ArticleWho Votes for Medicaid Expansion? Lessons from Maine's 2017 Referendum -- by...
In November 2017, Maine became the first state in the nation to vote on a key provision of the Affordable Care Act: the expansion of Medicaid. We analyze local voting results to identify...
View ArticleDifferences in Citation Patterns across Journal Tiers in Economics -- by...
Economics places a strong emphasis on publishing in a narrow set of top tier journals. Given that venue reputation does not necessarily go hand in hand with citation performance, we study how citation...
View ArticleDeterring Illegal Entry: Migrant Sanctions and Recidivism in Border...
In this paper, we use administrative records from the U.S. Border Patrol to examine how penalizing illegal border crossing affects recidivism in the apprehension of undocumented migrants at the...
View ArticleDo Fire Sales Create Externalities? -- by Sergey Chernenko, Adi Sunderam
We develop three novel measures of how much of the price impact of their trading different mutual funds internalize. We show that mutual funds that internalize more of their price impact hold larger...
View ArticleForecasting with Dynamic Panel Data Models -- by Laura Liu, Hyungsik Roger...
This paper considers the problem of forecasting a collection of short time series using cross sectional information in panel data. We construct point predictors using Tweedie's formula for the...
View ArticleCorruption, Government Subsidies, and Innovation: Evidence from China -- by...
Governments are important financiers of private sector innovation. While these public funds can ease capital constraints and information asymmetries, they can also introduce political distortions. We...
View ArticleRobots, Trade, and Luddism: A Sufficient Statistic Approach to Optimal...
Technological change, from the advent of robots to expanded trade opportunities, tends to create winners and losers. How should government policy respond? And how should the overall welfare impact of...
View ArticleMajority Choice of Taxation and Redistribution in a Federation -- by Stephen...
We provide a model with a federal government and multiple local governments, the former with power to levy an income tax for redistribution, and the latter choosing a local income tax, property tax,...
View ArticleThe Equilibrium Effects of Information Deletion: Evidence from Consumer...
This paper exploits a large-scale natural experiment to study the equilibrium effects of information restrictions in credit markets. In 2012, Chilean credit bureaus were forced to stop reporting...
View ArticlePublishing and Promotion in Economics: The Tyranny of the Top Five -- by...
This paper examines the relationship between placement of publications in Top Five (T5) journals and receipt of tenure in academic economics departments. Analyzing the job histories of tenure-track...
View ArticleTaking the Cochrane-Piazzesi Term Structure Model Out of Sample: More Data,...
We examine the Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005, 2008) model in several out-of-sample analyzes. The model's one-factor forecasting structure characterizes the term structures of additional currencies in...
View ArticleImmigrants, Labor Market Dynamics and Adjustment to Shocks in the Euro Area...
We analyze the role of labor mobility in cushioning labor demand shocks in the Euro Area. We find that foreign born workers' mobility is strongly cyclical, while this is not the case for natives....
View ArticleOptimal Law Enforcement with Ordered Leniency -- by Claudia M. Landeo,...
This paper studies the design of enforcement policies to detect and deter harmful short-term activities committed by groups of injurers. With an ordered-leniency policy, the degree of leniency granted...
View ArticleOrdered Leniency: An Experimental Study of Law Enforcement with...
This paper reports the results of an experiment designed to assess the ability of an enforcement agency to detect and deter harmful short-term activities committed by groups of injurers. With...
View ArticleHeterogeneous Beliefs and School Choice Mechanisms -- by Adam Kapor,...
This paper studies how welfare outcomes in centralized school choice depend on the assignment mechanism when participants are not fully informed. Using a survey of school choice participants in a...
View ArticleConnecting to Power: Political Connections, Innovation, and Firm Dynamics --...
Do political connections affect firm dynamics, innovation, and creative destruction? We study Italian firms and their workers to answer this question. Our analysis uses a brand-new dataset, spanning...
View Article